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ProPublica
Bird flu might be spreading in the air.
The U.S. government isn't stopping it.
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Earlier this year, a bird flu outbreak that began at a single Ohio farm spread to flocks with over 18 million hens, leaving them all dead.
The USDA is convinced that bird flu can be curbed if farmers adopt safety practices: Sealing holes in barns and ensuring they don't track droppings on their shoes.
But that playbook doesn't work if the virus is airborne, as industry leaders suspect. They've begged officials to deploy a vaccine for poultry. But the USDA hasn't done that or explored their theory.
So ProPublica did.
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Rows of buried chickens outside a poultry farm in Fort Recovery, Ohio, in May
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To trace how the virus rippled through more than 80 farms in Ohio and Indiana, we analyzed data on the genetics of the virus, satellite imagery, wind simulations, property records and trade notices.
We also consulted with researchers whose peer-reviewed work previously found that the virus can spread on floating feathers and particles of dust.
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Howe's Hens
500 feet
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We found that virus samples taken from outbreak sites shared a unique genetic signature. Their ancestry is traced back to one source in western Ohio: Howe's Hens.
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INDIANA
OHIO
Howe's Hens
Our analysis found that over 200 farms raising chickens or turkeys were in the surrounding 12-mile radius, the ring that USDA establishes around an outbreak to look for where else the virus may have spread.
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INDIANA
OHIO
Howe's Hens
The virus raged at Howe's Hens from at least Dec. 22 to Dec. 31, when all the birds on the farm had been killed. Using weather data from that period, we simulated where dust from the site could have blown.
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INDIANA
OHIO
Where the wind blew, the virus followed. Within three weeks, poultry tested positive at 17 farms, all but one within the plume. Farms downwind from Howe's Hens were about 20 times as likely to see outbreaks.
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INDIANA
OHIO
The virus continued to spread. By mid-March, it had hit 83 farms across six counties and two states, leaving over 20 million chickens dead, most no further than 15 miles from the first infected farm.
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To combat bird flu spread, other countries have authorized poultry vaccines. But the U.S. has held off amid political and economic opposition.
Without a vaccine, experts say the virus poses an escalating threat. If a person catches bird flu while infected with a seasonal flu, the pathogens could mutate into a variant that infects large numbers of people.
"The minute it transmits in humans, it's done," one expert said.
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Howe's Hens did not respond to a request for comment.
A USDA spokesperson said it was "conjecture" to say vaccination would offer flocks better protection from airborne spread than its current strategy, which "remains rooted in real-time data, internationally recognized best practices and a commitment to transparency and continuous improvement."
The agency told ProPublica it has made no decision on whether to vaccinate hens and has no timeline on when it might announce one — though it is "proactively assessing" the possibility.
READ THE FULL STORY AT PROPUBLICA.ORG.
