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To President Trump, the accuracy of statistics and scorekeepers can turn on a dime. Linda Qiu, a New York Times reporter, explains Trump’s selective approach to government data. At the link in our bio, we examine how this plays into his pressure tactics and threatens trust in public data.
Video by Linda Qiu, Karen Hanley and Stephanie Swart
Transcript
President Trump uses data to benefit himself. When the data shows his policies in a good light, he cites them eagerly and willingly. But when they are bad for his political narratives, the data to him is undoubtedly fake or fraudulent or phony. Phony false numbers. Phony numbers. We fact check some of Donald Trump's claims on the data. In April, Trump celebrated reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In three months, we have created 350,000 jobs. This was true in what the BLS reported, but just a few months later, employment numbers for previous months were revised down significantly by 258,000 jobs. That was a significant revision, but it was a pretty normal step of the process. In response to this, Trump was displeased, and he fired the commissioner of the BLS. I believe the numbers were phony best like they were before the election. So you know what I did? I fired her. This lacks evidence. Trump and his advisers have produced no proof that the BLS is purposefully manipulating the data, and experts say that its data is still reliable. Trump has used data from the congressional budget office to his favorite as well. In May, as he prepared to launch his domestic policy agenda, the CBO forecast showed slow economic growth. Low economic growth makes his policies seem more costly. So Trump said that this data was purposefully manipulated to make him look bad. This lacks evidence. And for what it's worth, the head of the CBO is a Republican who worked in the Bush administration. In August, the CBO showed that Trump's tariffs would generate about $4,000,000,000,000 in revenue. Trump celebrated this report and cited it. When the CBO came out on Friday and said, we just found 11 we just found $4,000,000,000,000, and that goes to reduce our deficit. This is true, and Trump is using the data to his benefit. Violent crime in US cities has been on the decline for several decades. In May, at a swearing in ceremony, he cited justice department figures about crime in Washington DC. Crime is down in Washington DC. Street crime, violent crime best 25%. This was true according to yearly data released by the Washington DC Police Department. But in August, Trump started a federal takeover of Washington DC and cited the city's crime as justification. When local officials cited the decline in the city's crime, Trump instead said They gave phony numbers and then they fired the man who didn't wanna write the phony numbers. This needs more context. Trump was citing local news reports that a police commander had been put on leave for manipulating the data. Experts have said that while it's possible the city under counts its numbers, the overall numbers are still pretty reliable and do show a decline in the city's violent crime. These nonpartisan statistical agencies help inform policy makers across the federal government, local governments, as well as economists and researchers around the world. Trust in them is paramount to policymaking, and eroding that trust could have great implications.