@caseymorrowlewis
TikTok · Greenscreen Talking Head
@caseymorrowlewis crumbs cupcakes comeback when #crumbl #magnoliabakery #cronut #froyo
Trending short videosAnalyzing a brand's potential downfall
The edit1 shot · 6 text
Shots Text2:15
Performance
- Views
- 707.1K
- Likes
- 59.3K
- Comments
- 2.2K
- Engagement
- 8.7%
- Outlier
- 10.4×
- Length · 22 Jul 2024
- 2:15
Video #6023 · Greenscreen Talking Head
Analyzing a brand's potential downfallfrom @caseymorrowlewis
[01]
Overview
A trend analyst breaks down a news article predicting the downfall of Crumbl Cookies. She provides historical context by comparing Crumbl to past dessert trends like cupcakes and froyo, then analyzes the article's points, including declining revenue, store closures, layoffs, and negative customer feedback, while adding her own commentary and predicting the brand's eventual decline within a couple of years.
[02]
Simple outline
- 1Establish authority on topic
- 2Introduce dominant player
- 3Present contrarian thesis
- 4Provide rapid-fire evidence
- 5Deliver final prediction
[03]
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Classification
[05]
Hook analysis
What stops the scroll in the first 3 seconds
Title hook · 55%
Signs Crumbl Cookies Won't Be Around Much Longer
Verbal hook · 30%
Study trends for a living, and I've lived through all kinds of dessert trends.
Visual hook · 15%
The creator is positioned in front of a visually interesting background featuring a pink Crumbl cookie box and an assortment of colorful cookies. A large, bold headline overlay immediately establishes the video's controversial topic.
[07]
Hook and payoff
The promise the opener makes, and how the video pays it back
Hook
The creator establishes their expertise by stating their profession and provides historical context, framing the current subject as just the latest in a predictable, recurring cycle of trends.
Payoff
The creator delivers a conclusive, expert prediction, including a specific timeframe and the mechanism for the subject's ultimate end, providing a satisfying sense of closure and insider knowledge.
[08]
Narrative framework
The structural pattern this video runs on
Framework
The Trend Forecaster Blueprint
To establish authority on a subject, identify the current dominant player, and then use a series of evidence-based arguments to predict its imminent decline or failure, framing it within a historical pattern of rise-and-fall cycles.
- 1
The Historical Precedent
Lists past examples of similar entities that rose and fell, establishing a pattern that primes the audience to expect the same outcome for the current subject.
- 2
Crowning the Champion
Details the current subject's peak dominance and massive success, creating a high point from which the subsequent fall will seem more dramatic.
- 3
The Prophecy of Doom
Introduces the central, counter-intuitive thesis via an external source (like a headline), signaling a dramatic shift in the narrative from success to failure.
- 4
The Theoretical Framework
Provides the high-level logic for the predicted downfall, typically citing unsustainable growth and growing negative sentiment as the core reasons.
- 5
The Evidence Barrage
Rapidly presents a series of distinct data points and arguments from an article to support the thesis, covering different categories of failure (e.g., customer perception, financial decline, operational weakness).
- 6
The Desperation Signal
Interprets a recent action by the subject (like a new product launch) not as innovation, but as a sign of weakness and a desperate attempt to maintain relevance.
Themes
Techniques
Trends
Post caption
crumbs cupcakes comeback when #crumbl #magnoliabakery #cronut #froyo
Text overlays
title · beginning
Signs Crumbl Cookies Won't Be Around Much Longer
informational · middle
While plenty of factors contribute to a brand's downfall, none matter quite as much as dwindling sales. Crumbl Cookies may boast more units than ever, but it's experienced this drop in sales in the past year. According to Crumbl's 2024 franchise disclosure document (via Franchise Times), the average store revenue dropped in 2023 from $1.8 million to $1.16 million, marking a 37% decrease. Most importantly, this is apparently the first year in which Crumbl's average revenue has declined, ever.
informational · middle
It's already started closing multiple locations
informational · middle
There have been huge layoffs behind the scenes
informational · middle
The cookies receive way less hype on social media than they used to
informational · middle
Some customers think they've changed the recipe (and not in a good way)
Transcript
Study trends for a living, and I've lived through all kinds of dessert trends. The twenty tens were no cupcakes. This bakery called Crumbs, they were massive, like, pound cupcakes. Looking at them makes my stomach seize up. And then Froyo took over rank berry and pasty delight. And then in 2013, it was all about the cronut. Around that same time, we saw the rise of Milk Bar. The last few years, though, Crumbl has been the dominant dessert trend. When this place opened up in New York, there were lines around the block. You could not get a Crumbl cookie to save your life. This trend was widespread beyond New York before it made it here. They now have 980 locations. But I just came across this headline that says signs Crumbl Cookies won't be around much longer. I do think they're onto something. Crumbl's growth has been so significant that there's just no way they can sustain it. And I think the backlash has also been as swift as the growth. A lot of people do not like crumble cookies. They think they're undercooked. They think they're too sweet. They think they're too rich. They're over iced. This basically says that the average store revenue has dropped in 2023 from 1.8 to 1.16, a 37% decrease. Also said a bunch of other numbers that indicate they are not doing as well. Has closed multiple locations. There's been behind the scenes layoffs. This says that the cookies are receiving way less hype on social media. I don't know if that's actually true. I still see Crumble on my FYP quite a bit. I happened to walk by the tier Crumble location on 6th Avenue in New York, maybe 7th, a couple weeks worse. And there was, in fact, a line of fifteen, twenty people. Some people think they've changed the recipe. People are also upset that the prices have gone up. That is the nature of inflation. I don't think that's Crumble's fault, but now cookies can cost as much as $5 a pop. Also launched this cookie cup thing, which is a sign that they are trying to stay relevant. I think that the future of Crumble there's no question. It's not going to maintain, but the the question is how quickly it will crush and burn. I give Crumbles dwindling rain another year or two before it's bought by like a private equity firm who saves it for parts.