The creator, a fractional CFO, explains the financial risks of investing in the booming padel court industry. He starts by showing the attractive initial revenue projections based on current high demand, then systematically deconstructs this investment case by introducing the inevitable factor of market competition. He uses specific calculations to demonstrate how increased supply leads to lower occupancy and price cuts, causing a dramatic drop in revenue while fixed costs remain, ultimately turning a seemingly profitable venture into a money-losing one.
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Padel doesn’t need to die for you to lose your money.
It just needs three more courts down the road.
Your ten-year lease suddenly looks very fucking long.
A booming sport can still be a terrible investment.
The risk in investing in padel courts is assuming today’s fully booked calendar will survive tomorrow’s competition.
More courts means more choice. Your customers can move to somewhere cheaper or closer. Your rent and loan repayments stay with you.
Here’s the maths:
📉 Booked hours fall 25%.
📉 You cut prices 20%.
💸 Revenue falls 40%.
That’s before you’ve paid staff, maintenance, insurance or the landlord.
Before opening a padel club, stress-test occupancy, pricing and local competition. Court revenue means very little until you understand the costs underneath it.
Would you still invest if another club opened ten minutes away?
Follow for more on business models, investment returns and the numbers behind the hype.
#Padel #PadelBusiness #BusinessInvestment #BusinessFinance #Entrepreneurship
Transcript
A massive boom in Paddle, but nobody understands why it's going to lose you every pound that you invest. Tier thing that makes your first call look like a money printer could be exactly the thing that destroys your return. I'm Alex. I've watched tier $300,000,000 worth of deals, and now I'm a fractional CFO helping scaling businesses understand where they actually make money. And here's why investing in Paddle can be a shit investment. You book a court, nothing available. £40 an hour, four people a plane. You rank, I should open one of these. So you build a spreadsheet, six hours booked a day, good an hour, nearly $90 a year per call? Looks lovely, but this is the cap. You've assumed that today's shortage will still exist after everyone else has built their calls. Those attractive returns, other investors can see them good. And your customer might love your club. Do they love it enough to drive past a cheap one ten minutes close to home? Now you've got two problems, fewer bookings and pressure to cut your prices, and this is where the math gets nasty. Booked hours fall by 25% and you cut prices by 20%, your revenue falls by 40%, but your rent doesn't. And if you borrow to build it, those repayments don't disappear either. Paddle doesn't even have to become less popular for this to happen. Your town just needs courts to open faster than demand grows. So please love Good before you invest in Paddle courts, ask what stops the next court taking my customers, and do the numbers still work if it does? If your entire investment case is everyone wants to play paddle, you haven't finished your investment case, mate. Follow for more on what makes a growing business a good investment.
