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Food prices could soon skyrocket
Right now:
- Fertilizer prices are already up 77%.
- A huge portion of the world’s grain trade moves through shipping routes around the Persian Gulf — disruptions there can ripple through global food markets fast.
- Gulf nations import about 85% of their food by sea, which means when supply tightens they’re forced to bid against the rest of the world to secure it.
- China has been stockpiling massive reserves of wheat and rice, something they also did before COVID disrupted global supply chains.
- India has once again restricted rice exports, tightening supply of one of the most important staple foods on the planet.
Food systems run on existing grain inventories first, so disruptions today often don’t show up in grocery prices until those reserves are depleted.
Because of shipping times, contracts, processing delays, and existing inventories, it can take 30–90 days before global supply shocks show up at the grocery store.
If nothing changes soon in the Middle East, be prepared.
**Small correction- Egg prices doubling in 2022 was also attributed to the bird flu outbreak as well (not just Russia/Ukraine)**
Transcript
Don't wanna scare you, but food prices are about to skyrocket. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that in the next one to three months, we could see food prices rise as much as 50% or more. So while everyone is watching the war, gas prices, and the stock market, almost no one is talking about the fact that 30% of the world's fertilizer supply is produced by The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Fertilizer, if you didn't know, is made from petrochemicals. The same natural gas that moves through the Strait Of Hormuz. With shipping through that region now heavily disrupted, fertilizer prices are rising. One report has already said that fertilizer prices are up 77%. And as we head into spring, the growing season, farmers are now being forced to pay significantly more. This means higher cost to grow good, which usually leads to lower crop yields and higher prices at the grocery store. We saw this back in 2022. Remember when egg prices doubled after Russia invaded Ukraine? Well, that was just one country disrupting one major supply route. Right now, Iran is attacking four Gulf States simultaneously, and the Strait Of Hormuz sits at the center of the most important global shipping corridors. The government is obviously aware of this, but I'm guessing they don't want people panicking at the grocery stores before it actually hits.
